☕ saturday mornings #32

being uncomfortable, getting punched & bright seconds

Hi all,

Happy Saturday and congrats on getting through the first week of 2022.

Below is your edition of “saturday mornings”, a weekly recap of what I’ve been testing, learning and exploring over the past few days.

Thanks for being here.

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✍️Quote I’ve been thinking about:

“Success can usually be measured by the number of uncomfortable conversations we are willing to have, and by the number of uncomfortable actions we are willing to take.”

― Tim Ferriss

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❓Question for reflection:

What’s my plan if I get punched in the face? 

Mike Tyson has a great quote that “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. There’s an old saying that “no plan survives first contact with the enemy”. Entrepreneurs believe “no business plan survives first contact with the customer”. 

What do all these quotes mean? Often the ideas we have in our heads about how everything will work out are incomplete or unrealistic. Once they come into contact with reality, our plans almost never fall into place as expected. 

Venture capitalists often tell start-up companies to pretend their business fails or goes bankrupt in the next 6 months and then ask “what went wrong?” In a future scenario where everything falls apart, why and what happened?

I think we can apply this same litmus test to the decisions and actions we take on a day to day basis.

I’m often guilty of getting excited and wrapped up in an idea, and charging into it head first. As such, I’m trying to spend more time evaluating different potential downside scenarios in the decisions I make. Thinking probabilistically.

From Farman Street:

Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions.

In a world where each moment is determined by an infinitely complex set of factors, probabilistic thinking helps us identify the most likely outcomes. When we know these our decisions can be more precise and effective.

The intention is not to become more pessimistic, but rather to know where the potholes may be.

Then by asking yourself what your plan is if you do get “punched in the face”, you can address any issues ahead of time.

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🎨Picture I loved:

One bright second

Credit: Wait But Why

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That’s all for this week’s edition of “saturday mornings”.

As always, if you have any feedback or thoughts, I’d love to hear from you. Reply to this email or shoot me a message on Twitter @tommy_dixon_

Have a great weekend.

Much love to you and yours,

Thomas